By Mark T. Jones- Anyone with even half an eye on international politics will have observed that the tectonic plates appear to be shifting. From the Brexit vote in Britain to the election of Donald Trump something is clearly afoot.
Throughout history there have been eras of change and transformation, often presaged by incredible uncertainty and a general upsetting of the equilibrium. With this in mind I found myself reflecting on the current state of the Horn of Africa, and the appetite for change.
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Throughout history there have been eras of change and transformation, often presaged by incredible uncertainty and a general upsetting of the equilibrium. With this in mind I found myself reflecting on the current state of the Horn of Africa, and the appetite for change.
If we listen to seasoned
politicians and many self-appointed pundits in the media we might well believe
that very little is happening in the Horn at present. In truth the situation on
the ground tells a rather different story, one that anyone with any foresight
at all will appreciate has serious implications for future policy. Droughts are
becoming ever more frequent and unforgiving, and daily the region is being
denuded of vegetation as never before. Whilst most regional politicians barely
manage to plan beyond 2020 the available demographic data, such as it is,
reveals alarming population trends as we head towards 2050 and beyond.
Ethiopia, a regional powerhouse is
currently undergoing one of its periodic paroxysms of social unrest that has
their origins in the myopia and intransigence of the ruling elite. Eritrea
remains locked in an ideological time warp that sees those in power content to
see the country haemorrhage its young. Similarly, those who hold sway in Sudan
seem intent on frustrating freedom of expression and thus resort to seemingly spiteful
measures calculated to snuff out the merest semblance of joy amongst a people
whose capacity for generosity is almost unrivalled. The body politic in South
Sudan appears little more than a twitching corpse, whilst Kenya, for its lofty
pretensions, snarls and lashes out at anyone who has the temerity to ask
searching question of those who see democracy such as it is as little more than
a license to loot.
The Horn and the Greater Horn of
Africa is a tough neighbourhood in which to live. I say live, for many that
really is stretching things, day to day survival is the best that they can hope
for. For the thousands of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) life is really grim.
Few people care, and even the Western NGO-wallahs only make an occasional
effort to champion their cause in the corridors of accountability. This year
has witnessed Kenya’s callous actions in respect of Dadaab, motivated more out
of Somalophobia than out of any coherent sense of what is right for Kenya and
the wider region. Regionally women and girls bear the brunt of suffering, and
then are expected to be eternally grateful when khat-addled old men deign to permit them a few seats in which ever
talking shop is to be permitted.
Whilst men engage in their power
politics, and clans seek to thwart one another at every turn, the trees are
felled, the shrubs uprooted and havoc wreaked by yet another drought. Wells
fall into disrepair and precious real effort in made to undertake systematic
water conservation and management measures. As if this were not bad enough,
there is the scourge of unemployment and under-employment. Young men kick their
heels and look covetously at the flash four-wheeled drives that churn up dust.
The desperation of youth saps the nation of its life blood, some are the easy
target for those with radical intentions, while others seek a better life via
the deserts and the sea. To my knowledge no leader has erected a monument to
those who have been so failed by successive governments.
As if this were not hard enough to
stomach, then there are the superannuated Westerners and their smug little
homilies. Artful deceivers many of them,
hectoring one minute or mealy-mouthed the next. They and their Big Man politics
are as tiresome as they are sanctimonious. Strange isn’t it how these career
diplomats who prate about democracy are often the same people who have little
care for the democratic will of the people in their own lands. Posturing has
become the order of the day, whether in be the Turks in Mogadishu or the
Chinese in Djibouti, tragically the Horn’s strategic location means it is
likely to remain a magnet for such activity.
For all this, the people of the
region and its well-connected Diaspora care passionately. Barely a day passes
without some new entrepreneurial activity or outreach, acts that belie what is
portrayed in the media. This is especially true of the Somalis, as ingenious
and as entrepreneurial a people as I have ever encountered. Their energy and
passion is truly humbling, their sense of self-reliance an essential
prerequisite for their onward journey. If they can harness their full potential
and put past enmities behind them, the sky is their only limit, and even then
poetry and song will carry their hopes and aspirations still further.
For Somalis history casts a long
shadow. Whether you revere the flag of Somalia or Somaliland invariably defines
who you are. Whilst a whole raft of issues are pressing the recognition one
resonates the most. Only this week I decided to carry out a totally
unscientific poll via my twitter account (@marktjones500), the question was as
follows:
When will
Somaliland gain full international recognition as a sovereign state?
Within the
space of 24 hours some 246 people voted and this was the result was:
39% Within the
next 5 years
17% By 2030
44% Not in our
lifetime
What was surprising was not so
much the result, as the degree of engagement. We all appreciate that there are
so many variables, but people care. Some will brook no change and might be
dubbed by one side as “the Haters”, whilst others yearn for the world to accept
what has already become a reality. My own experience of talking to people of differing
persuasions is that in truth it is perfectly possible to love Somaliland
without hating Somalia and vice versa. There is always far more that unites
Somalis as people than might divide them when it comes to flags or maps. Like
so much in life, the situation in reality is far more complex for the Somalis
themselves. Some Landers are ambivalent about recognition for they fear the
dominance of a particular clan, whilst Somalis in Puntland and Jubaland and
even occasionally in Mogadishu often express admiration (and even a little
envy) at all that Somaliland has achieved. Somalis themselves must find their
own way forward. There is a yearning for change, and for leaders across the
Horn who serve, rather than self-serve. In respect of Somaliland recognition
(some would say ‘re-recognition’) that is easier said the done, for the African
Union is a fierce opponent of border change and most diplomats will prefer to
engage in sophistry and semantics, rather than reconcile themselves to the
reality on the ground. Yet we only need to look around us to appreciate that
the world even of January 2016 is not the world we will wake up to in 2017.
The Horn and the Greater Horn will
continue to be a challenging region. Some of its troubles will be of its own
making, some from the result of both the well-meaning and nefarious activities
of outsiders. Getting a handle on the current dynamics of the Horn takes some
doing. The region is bedevilled by preconceptions and misconceptions that are
not helped by a reluctance to visit and engage. Countries such as Sudan are
largely neglected, a double tragedy both for the Sudanese and for ourselves.
How different we would see things had we attended a home fixture of Al Hilal
Omdurman or shared a meal with the Hadendoa. Ethiopia is patently not the
country it was in 1985. The Horn is changing, and all who truly care about its
future and well-being need to wake up to this fact.
Mark T Jones
International Speaker &
Leadership Specialist
